What’s the Winning Formula?
With three and a half weeks left in the campaign, there is still plenty of runway for a shift in support. Yet, the polls today paint a picture of the type of two-horse race that Canadians have not seen in a generation.
Mark Carney’s Liberals are polling around 44% and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives at 38%, meaning both parties have a level of popular support that has formed governments in the recent past. Justin Trudeau won his 2015 majority with just 39% of the vote, and his two recent minorities with 32-33%. Today’s numbers are a result of the cratering of support for the NDP, which is currently on track to match its second-worst vote share of 8.5% in 2000 (the floor being 6.9% in 1993).
To find a close comparison to today’s polls for the two front-runners, we have to go back to the 1979 election, where Pierre Trudeau’s Liberals received 40% of the popular vote, yet lost to Joe Clark’s Conservatives, who received 36% of the popular vote but won more seats.
Finding the Efficiencies
Justin Trudeau was able to squeeze out two minority governments in 2019 and 2021 despite the Conservatives winning more of the popular vote in part because the Conservatives won more votes in ridings that they already held. This is an “inefficient” vote on the part of the Conservatives. Conservative ridings like the West and rural Ontario became even more Conservative, but battleground ridings that they needed to take from the Liberals to form government, particularly in suburban Ontario, stayed Liberal for the most part.
Back in 1979, Joe Clark was able to grow his support in the West enough into Ontario to form a minority government, but he failed to find the kind of support in Quebec that would have secured him a majority. The Bloc did not yet exist, and the Liberals maintained their stranglehold there that would only be broken in 1984.
The 1979 election had three familiar themes: one, voters were tired of 11 years of leadership under a Trudeau; two, rising prices were hitting Canadians’ pocketbooks; and three…
Confederation is Worth Fighting For
Carney’s sky-high polling is overshadowing the fact that Poilievre’s numbers, while lower than his peak, are still about 4% better than the Conservatives received in the last election. The Conservative base is a strong one and has been growing. It’s strong enough to give credence to the packed rooms that Poilievre’s campaign is still showcasing. While his vote may still be inefficient (time will tell), Poilievre’s voters are motivated.
This reflects a third theme from 1979: western alienation. Conservative voters in the western provinces came out in larger numbers in 2019 and 2021 to remove the Liberals from power. While the Conservatives won the popular vote, Trudeau stayed in power thanks to regional distribution of the vote. This reality has conservative voices like former Reform Party Leader Preston Manning raising eyebrows in warning that a Liberal victory even under Carney risks Alberta choosing to separate from Canada.
Ultimately, voters themselves will have their say, and the strong Liberal polling numbers early in this campaign, and warnings from Manning, may result in even more changes by the time election day comes. For example, if NDP voters who feared a Poilievre government and the Trump threat feel secure enough by election day to vote NDP after all, this could evaporate some of the support Carney has gained. Or, the hyperbole about breaking up the country could bring enough Alberta voters to the Liberals to increase their seat count, as polls currently project them to do in the province. Indeed, while today Poilievre disagreed publicly with the comments from Manning, newly named Liberal candidate Corey Hogan has launched his campaign in the now-competitive riding of Calgary Confederation, Alberta claiming that “Confederation is worth fighting for.”
Star Candidates of the Day: Western Voices
With the retirement of former cabinet minister Harjit Sajjan, the Carney Liberals have been able to secure a familiar face in former Vancouver Mayor (2008–18) Gregor Robertson (Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby, British Columbia) as candidate in what should be a safe seat for the Liberals in British Columbia. Robertson was previously a provincial NDP MLA (2005–08). As mayor, Robertson commited to ending street homelessness by 2015, a promise that he was not able to fulfill and which remains a key issue in Vancouver politics. In this election, Robertson has identified housing, community infrastructure, affordability, and climate change as his top priorities.
In Alberta, the Poilievre Conservatives have been able to attract former United Conservative Party MLA Jeremy Nixon (Calgary Confederation, Alberta) to run in what should still be a safe seat for the Conservatives in Calgary, although polling now makes it a toss-up with the Liberals. Nixon was defeated provincially by the NDP candidate in the 2023 Alberta election, but had served as Minister of Seniors, Community, and Social Services in the Danielle Smith cabinet. Before politics, Nixon worked at his family’s non-profit organization, Mustard Seed, which was founded by his father to eliminate homelessness and reduce poverty.
