The Quebec Factor
(Originally published March 27, 2025)
Federal election history has been made time and again in Quebec: through Brian Mulroney’s sweeping victory for the Progressive Conservatives in the province in 1984 removing the longstanding Liberal dominance; the upstart Bloc Québécois’ launch to the position of Official Opposition in 1993 just before the referendum on separation; and of course Jack Layton’s “orange crush” for the NDP in 2011, where a surprise performance in the province put that party in the position of Official Opposition for the first time while the Liberals languished in their worst-ever election.
In 2025, Quebec maintains its unique position in the election campaign. The NDP’s voting intentions have collapsed across the country and the Greens remain a non-factor in all but a couple of ridings, making this election a two-way race between Carney’s Liberals and Poilievre’s Conservatives thus far. Everywhere, that is, except Quebec.
In Quebec, the affable Yves-François Blanchet of the Bloc Québécois leads a team that will continue to ensure some tight three-way races that can lead to surprise results on election day with every vote counting and missteps by campaigns having less margin for error. We can expect the Bloc Québécois platform to echo the provincial government’s demands on immigration, protecting key sectors in Quebec’s economy and increased federal transfers to fund new health and infrastructure spending. The alignment (or lack thereof) between Quebec’s demands and the two main federalist parties’ platforms could shape public opinion in the province, likely to the Bloc’s advantage.
The French Factor
Prime Minister Mark Carney had a bad start to his week in Quebec. While he will participate in both official election debates (French and English), he declined to participate in a second French debate by TVA, likely due to his poorer command of French and the traditional frontrunner tactic of reducing risks from overexposure. Shortly after this news came out, Carney stumbled again while promoting one of his star candidates in Quebec—Nathalie Provost, a survivor of the 1989 École Polytechnique massacre and a prominent advocate for gun control and the prevention of violence against women. In French, he badly mispronounced her name, portrayed her as a “social justice defender,” and said that the 1989 shooting was at Concordia University. This situation allowed his opponents to fuel perceptions of Carney’s potential lack of knowledge of Quebec.
The juxtaposition of Carney eliminating gender parity from his new cabinet, not including his impressive leadership competitor Karina Gould in his cabinet, and removing the position of Minister of Women and Gender Equality is stark when one of the most prominent women the Liberals have been able to attract as a new candidate is as little-understood by the party’s leader as Provost seems to be by Carney.
While given the benefit of the doubt so far, Carney has struggled in French over the course of his leadership aspirations. His lack of command in the language of Molière led to him mistakenly “siding” with Hamas in the Liberal leadership debate. It has also led to poorly constructed responses in French to reporters’ questions in pressers, with him occasionally giving up and switching to English.
What may save Carney from his “French factor” this week is how quickly attention is returning to the trade issue with a renewed threat of tariffs against Canada’s automotive sector by President Trump last night.
Pierre Poilievre, despite his name, is not a native French speaker. Yet, his command of the language has greatly improved over years of clear effort. In responding to President Trump’s attacks on the automotive sector last night, Poilievre spoke clearly and at length in French first, following the custom set by his mentor, former Prime Minister Stephen Harper. Poilievre will be able to show Quebecers his stronger ability than Carney to communicate with them in French during the debate on April 16, where Carney will no longer have his friend Chrystia Freeland there to help him with the language.
Star Candidates of the Day: New But Familiar Faces in Quebec
Liberal MP Brenda Shanahan won her riding of Châteauguay—Lacolle by a mere 12 votes over her Bloc competitor Patrick O’Hara in 2021, but only after a recount. In fact, O’Hara had already begun the administrative process with the House of Commons to take his seat when many believed—including him and Shanahan—that he had won on election day. With Shanahan now retiring, new Liberal candidate Nathalie Provost (Chateauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville, Quebec) will seek to keep this re-drawn riding red in 2025. While polls are currently favourable, she has not been gifted a “safe” riding and will have to work for it against O’Hara, who is making a renewed attempt for the Bloc.
Provost is known to many in Quebec, having first gained prominence as a 23 year old mechanical engineering student at École Polytechnique de Montréal in 1989, where she survived the tragic mass shooting. Provost was shot four times to her head and leg, cautioning her fellow students to play dead. She maintained prominence as a gun control advocate and activist to reduce violence against women. Provost has historically been critical of the Liberal party’s actions, often deeming them insufficient. However, faced with the alternative of a Conservative government, she has lent her support as a Liberal candidate. Election day will tell us if this shift may reflect a broader sentiment among Quebecers. Given the controversy primarily among Conservative voters surrounding the Trudeau government’s gun legislation, we can expect Provost’s voice, should she be elected, to be prominent on this issue.
Pierre Poilievre expects to hold the seats he currently has in Quebec, but to date is not expected to make the kind of significant gains in the province that would have attracted additional star candidates to throw their hat in the ring for him. One of his biggest stars is former CAQ provincial MNA Éric Lefebvre (Richmond—Arthabaska, Quebec), a backbench MNA who resigned from the governing CAQ party to sit as an independent when he became a candidate for the federal Conservatives. He resigned his provincial seat completely on March 18.
Lefebvre is seeking the safe Conservative seat of Richmond—Arthabaska, which had been held by multi-term Conservative MP Alain Rayes, who left the party to sit as an independent after the failure of Jean Charest to secure the leadership over Pierre Poilievre. Rayes will not be running again. Lefebvre and Rayes actually faced off against each other for Mayor of Victoriaville previously, with Rayes ultimately succeeding there.
Earlier today, Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet introduced environmental activist Patrick Bonin (Repentigny, Quebec) as a star candidate for his party in Repentigny. The riding located on Montreal’s north shore was held by Bloc MP Monique Pauzé, who is not seeking another mandate. Bonin is well-known in Quebec as a leading advocate for the environmental movement, notably due to his role as a climate and energy campaigner for Greenpeace Canada. A year ago, Bonin made headlines by occupying then Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s Toronto riding office to advocate for the government placing greater emphasis on environmental issues. He has also been critical of the Bloc’s (and other parties’) environmental positions in the past, leading the media to confront him with some of his recent media statements.
