Making Use of a Longer Mandate
When former Prime Minister Stephen Harper put in place the fixed election date law in 2007 amid his first minority government, he intended to “prevent governments from calling snap elections for short-term political advantage.” It was meant to level the playing field and make the rules clear for everyone by placing the election on the third Monday of October. In this system, a full-length Parliament would be four years, not the constitutionally-allowable five. The catch, however, occurs if the government loses a confidence vote—or if the Prime Minister decides to pull the plug early anyway.
Since the law was put in place, Harper ignored the fixed election date once (the very next year in 2008), and former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau ignored the rule in 2021. In March 2011, the Opposition parties banded together to bring down Harper’s government early, but it had a result that they would not have intended. Since Harper ultimately won a majority government, he would get four and half years to govern, rather than only four. He would make very good use of the time.
The timing of this year’s election matches closely with that in 2011. While there are no guarantees, polls are currently placing Prime Minister Mark Carney in a position to form a majority government, and with it the gift of four and a half years of governing, not just four. Like in 2011, this would result in an additional fall sitting of Parliament providing three extra months to get legislation through.
Making Every Sitting Count
Parliaments have three main sitting periods: fall, winter, and spring. Harper’s majority from 2011 to 2015 saw an impressive 169 bills receive Royal Assent over the course of 12.5 sitting periods. This averages 13.5 bills per sitting period. Yet, a minority governing position does not have to be an obstacle to legislative effectiveness. At an average of 15 bills per sitting period, former Prime Minister Paul Martin’s minority in the 38th Parliament was more effective on average at passing legislation than either Harper or Trudeau.
This is thanks in part to a particularly effective Leader of the Government in the House of Commons, former Liberal MP Tony Valeri. Well-respected by his NDP and Conservative colleagues, Valeri was called “one of the most gifted House Leaders of recent times” by Martin, and his record holds up. Even during his majority, Trudeau’s government only passed an average of 9.5 bills per sitting period. Liberals will point to the pandemic and procedural disruption tactics employed by Conservatives to slow legislative progress over Trudeau’s three terms, but the record must still be a disappointing one.
Putting Campaign Policy into Action
With the immediate threat from the United States, the stakes in the 45th Parliament are high. The mandate that a majority government brings—whether Liberal or Conservative—would undoubtedly make it more effective at quickly and robustly responding to the crisis. In June 2011, Harper used his new majority to re-table his budget from March. It received Royal Assent with lightning speed – just thirteen days! The same situation would not exist should either Carney or Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre win the election. While Carney may benefit from some of the work the Trudeau government had done toward a spring budget, he has positioned himself in this campaign as being much different from Trudeau, particularly on the economy. In that regard, presenting a “Trudeau” budget right out of the gate would not fit his change narrative.
Whomever forms government, they can draw lessons from the House Leadership of Tony Valeri, whom his NDP colleague said “was a pleasure to work with” and “we always got down to business in a real way.” His Conservative colleague added that Valeri “was a great House Leader.” Finding someone who can bring colleagues from across the aisle together like that would go far to ensuring that the as much of the campaign platforms the leaders are running on can be implemented as possible.
Top Campaign Commitments in Their Own Words
Liberal Party:
Unite Canadians to meet this moment
Secure our sovereignty and our economy
Protect our values as Canadians
Build the strongest economy in the G7
“Canada Strong”
Conservative Party:
Cut the Liberal deficit by 70%
Lower income tax 15%
Build 2.3 million homes
Lock up criminals
“Canada First—For a Change”
Star Candidates of the Day
The team is ‘back together again’ with Tim Hodgson running for the Liberals in Markham—Thornhill, Ontario. Seen as a safe seat, we can expect Hodgson to have the ear of Mark Carney. Hodgson previously served as Special Advisor to Carney when he was Governor of the Bank of Canada. From 1990 to 2010, Hodgson held positions in New York, London, Silicon Valley, and Toronto with Goldman Sachs and served as Chief Executive Officer of Goldman Sachs Canada from 2005 to 2010. Hodgson also served in the Canadian Armed Forces from 1979 to 1985.
On the Conservative side, polls are currently pointing to Aaron Gunn picking up a seat for his party from the NDP in North Island—Powell River, British Columbia. Gunn served in the Canadian Army Reserves and worked with the Canadian Taxpayers Federation as Director of Special Projects. He since raised his profile through producing documentaries and garnering a large social media following. However, some of his commentary in favour of Russia’s anti-LGBTQ+ initiatives, denying a gender pay gap, and denying the existing of unmarked graves at the former Kamloops Indian Residential School have landed him in hot water.
